Friday, June 19, 2009

Where Did Wright's Power Go?

His Slugging Percentage is .25 points below his career average, so why?

One reason that is popular among people who do not like the whole modern age stats thing, so they continue to go with ranting on, and basing players, and how good they are on silly stats, like RBIs and Batting Average, when stats like VORP, and OBP exist, so we can accurately judge how well a player does. One stat I am going to look at to determine if the people who say its Citifield are right is Ballpark Factor, it is a stat where anything above 1.000 is a hitters park, and below is a pitchers park.

Citifield, as we can tell without Ballpark Factor, is a pitcher's park, it has a Ballpark Factor of 0.88, which makes it an extreme pitchers park, if you dive deeper into it, it has allowed its fair share of home runs, with a home run Ballpark Factor of, yes this is true: 1.136. I like most people am perplexed by this as well, how can such a big park have such a high HR Factor? (More on that later). Back to the Ballpark Factor, last season David Wright hit a career high in home runs, and in the season before, at what was also considered a "pitchers park", it had a Ballpark HR Factor of, I am not making this up: 1.081.

What could cause David Wright to lose all his power, after his two best HR years, in 07 and 08 when he hit 30 and 33, and slugged (both of these are 1-2) .546, and .534? I looked into, and I want to show you some photos of Citifield's construction, in those years.

Both of these are in 07.

















In 2007, Citifield began to take shape and start to being a real structure out beyond left field, and people talked about a wind pattern that was caused by it that made balls go farther then they usually would at Shea, which in 2003 had a Ballpark HR Factor of .835, in 04 had a .804, in 05 had a .890, in 06, when Citi was first being contructed of .575, which I believe is an outlier in this set of data, as it is not in line with the general point of direction. In 07, when we begin to focus on it had a Ballpark HR Factor of .900, so its climbing, and then finally as you already know from earlier, it had a Ballpark HR Factor of 1.081, when Citifield was at full size.

So what I am saying is the reason David Wright's HR is down, or down according to his last two seasons, is because of the fact he never was a 30 HR guy, but a 15-25 one who had the wind caused by Citifield for two seasons, and that gave him an extra 5-10 and boosted his Slugging Percentage.


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