Magglio Ordonez

Now I know he is expensive and he is struggling, but if we look deeper into the stats of him, we find he may possibly help the Mets, and if we dealt them Stokes, they would accept.

His basic stats are 2 Hr, 22 RBI, and his line is .271/.347/.339, his first two are okay, but the last one is not on line with where it should be. I am not worried about this as the Mets do not hit for much power anyway, so if he can add a bat to hit 5th, and be similar to David Wright, with no HR and a lot of RBIs.

His BABIP is right around his career average, at .310, and his career average is .316, so there is nothing wrong there, so its when the ball is not in play that hurts him, he has 33 Ks in 245 PAs, which is 7.42Ks/1 PA, and when he won the batting title in 2006, his K/1 PA ratio was 8.58Ks/1 PA, so it is actually lower, which means that he will break out of his slump, and if the Mets can buy low now, it will pay off later.

Tim Redding

Has he been good? He has certainly been up and down, and with Livan going nowhere, Nieve pitching well, and Maine and Perez coming (hopefully) back soon.

If we go with the easy stats his ERA is 6.27 which is bad, and his W-L is 0-2, so at first glance he looks bad, as those are the two stats most commonly associated with a starting pitcher, and for Tim they are not good. Another simple stat, which I actually like is quality start ( 6 IP 3 ER), and he has 3 of these in 6 starts, which is very good, so why are people calling for his head?

His 3 starts that were not quality were against Boston, Florida, and Baltimore, so they are against a team you do not expect a quality start from, but two teams that you should expect one. Also, in his non-quality starts he has pitched 16 innings, and allowed 17 runs, so he is all or nothing, remind you of anyone? (Ollie?).

If you look into some of the deeper stats, his BB/9 is 4.4, which reflects that his BABIP needs to be good, because when you are allowing runners on balls not in play, when the ball is in play it needs to be an out, and his BABIP is .298, which is okay.

I think Redding deserves to stay in the rotation, with Nieve pitching the 8th?

Line-Up Simulator Fun

Avg Runs Per Game: 4.34

Runs For 162 Games: 703

Order	Name	G	RBI	R
1	Alex Cora	162	31	86
2	Daniel Murphy	162	58	105
3	Carlos Beltran	162	101	135
4	David Wright	162	107	117
5	Gary Sheffield	162	145	101
6	Ryan Church	162	99	68
7	Brian Schneider	162	85	42
8	Luis Castillo	162	63	26
9	Fernando Nieve	162	10	19

Hopefully I'll have a better post later, but this is alarming.

Where Did Wright's Power Go?

His Slugging Percentage is .25 points below his career average, so why?

One reason that is popular among people who do not like the whole modern age stats thing, so they continue to go with ranting on, and basing players, and how good they are on silly stats, like RBIs and Batting Average, when stats like VORP, and OBP exist, so we can accurately judge how well a player does. One stat I am going to look at to determine if the people who say its Citifield are right is Ballpark Factor, it is a stat where anything above 1.000 is a hitters park, and below is a pitchers park.

Citifield, as we can tell without Ballpark Factor, is a pitcher's park, it has a Ballpark Factor of 0.88, which makes it an extreme pitchers park, if you dive deeper into it, it has allowed its fair share of home runs, with a home run Ballpark Factor of, yes this is true: 1.136. I like most people am perplexed by this as well, how can such a big park have such a high HR Factor? (More on that later). Back to the Ballpark Factor, last season David Wright hit a career high in home runs, and in the season before, at what was also considered a "pitchers park", it had a Ballpark HR Factor of, I am not making this up: 1.081.

What could cause David Wright to lose all his power, after his two best HR years, in 07 and 08 when he hit 30 and 33, and slugged (both of these are 1-2) .546, and .534? I looked into, and I want to show you some photos of Citifield's construction, in those years.

Both of these are in 07.

In 2007, Citifield began to take shape and start to being a real structure out beyond left field, and people talked about a wind pattern that was caused by it that made balls go farther then they usually would at Shea, which in 2003 had a Ballpark HR Factor of .835, in 04 had a .804, in 05 had a .890, in 06, when Citi was first being contructed of .575, which I believe is an outlier in this set of data, as it is not in line with the general point of direction. In 07, when we begin to focus on it had a Ballpark HR Factor of .900, so its climbing, and then finally as you already know from earlier, it had a Ballpark HR Factor of 1.081, when Citifield was at full size.

So what I am saying is the reason David Wright's HR is down, or down according to his last two seasons, is because of the fact he never was a 30 HR guy, but a 15-25 one who had the wind caused by Citifield for two seasons, and that gave him an extra 5-10 and boosted his Slugging Percentage.

This Is The Start Of Huff To Mets Ralk All Over NY Radio

Read the title, my shortest blgo post ever, and least statistically based, but its pretty true.

Is Feliciano A Lefty Specialist?

Pedro Feliciano is usually given the ball by Jerry Manual to pitch to a tough lefty, but lets look deeper into the stats.

The most basic stat to measure a left handed specialist by is BAA by left handers, and Feliciano's is where it should be at .149, allowing 10 hits in 67 ABs against him, which is good, and I will compare hsi number sto JC Romero's 2008 season, where he was considered one of the best left handed specialists in baseball.

Pedro Feliciano has allowed a Slugging Percentage of .299 on those hits, which I know sounds bad, but considering its over 10 hits in 67 ABs means that those ten hits have been pretty good, or for the Mets pretty bad. He out of those ten hits has allowed 3 home runs, which means that if Johan Santana has the same hits to homers ratio as him, he would have allowed 22 home runs this year, and for a comparison the league leader in home runs allowed is 17, so Pedro Feliciano allows WAY to many home runs, and this is against lefties only. The 7 other hits were a double, and 6 singles, he has allowed 7 of his batters to score, which is dispicable for a left handed specialist.

In 0-2 counts he has allowed 2 hits, and one of them is a home run, which for any relief pitcher is just bad, as 0-2 late in games needs to equal an out, or you will lose like the Mets tend to when Feliciano is in a game.

Now JC Romero in all of 2008 allowed a .102 BAA or 10-98. Of those ten hits, only one was a home run, ALL YEAR. He allowed 3 extra base hits total, for a .153 Slugging Percentage which is almost lower than Feliciano's BAA for lefties, so this shows us why Feliciano has been so ineffective.

Mets Need A 1B

The Mets need to get a first baseman, because Murphy/Tatis is not cutting it, lets go into the stats.

First lets go over the fixed number stats.

Carlos Delgado= 4 HR 23 RBI 15 R 28 H 12 BB 20 K 49 TB in 112 PA

Murphy/Tatis= 6 HR 33 RBI 38 R 69 H 31 BB 28 K 102 TB in 329 PA

Look at that, Delgado would have needed maybe 20 more games to ge to those numbers, and he would probably have better stats, so we could get a replacement, like Mark Derosa, who could fill in at SS, give Wright a day at 3B, or play the corner outfield, which has been better, butnot league average. There are other stats that are not fixed numbers, that make it even more clear.

http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/vorpdescnew.htm , that is a good defintion of VORP, which is a complicated stat. It is basically if you had Joe Average and replaced him with David Wright, they would get 34.2 more runs than Joe Average.

Carlos Delgado's 09 VORP= 7.3

Murphy+Tatis= 09 VORP of -3.2

They have been a black hole, and Omar needs to makle a change, that is is 10.5 extra runs we could have, imagine how we could use 10.5 runs? We could have won that game where Castillo dropped the ball, or then ones versus the Phillies when we lost in extra innings, so who is out there?

Adam Dunn

Dunn can play left, and first so when Delgado gets back he can move out to left field, he adds some serious power to the Mets line-up, as he has slugged 30 homers every year since I can remember. He has a VORP, of 17.4, a that is about 20 extra runs.

Nick Johnson

I am not a personal fan of Johnson as he is often hurt, and does not seem to be built for Citifield, but Omar seems to like him as he traded for him in Montreal, he has a VORP of 11.5, which is about 14 more runs.

Aubrey Huff

I like him and Dunn more than the other options, as they can hit for power, and play LF/1B, which both would help us substantially, his VORP is -2.5, as his D hurts him there.

There have been some other names, but these seem to be the most likely to be dealt to the Mets, last time I heard, the Nats are asking a ridiculous amount for Johnson, so maybe take him off hte list.